Showing posts with label encryption. Show all posts
Showing posts with label encryption. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Net neutrality, meet lawful interception

This post is written today from the NFV World Congress where I am chairing the first day track on operations. Many presentations in the pre-show workshop day point to an increased effort from standards bodies (ETSI, 3GPP..) and open source organizations (OpenStack, OpenDaylight...) to address security by design in next generations networks architecture.
Law enforcement agencies are increasingly invited to contribute or advise to the standardization work to ensure their needs are baked into the design of these networks. Unfortunately, it seems that there is a large gap between lawful agencies requirements, standards and regulatory bodies. Many of the trends we are observing in mobile networks, from software defined networking to network functions virtualization and 5G assume that operators will be able to intelligently route traffic and apportion resources elastically. Lawful interception regulations mandate that operators, upon a lawful request, may provide means to monitor, intercept, transcribe any electronic communication to security agencies.

It has been hard to escape the headlines, lately when it comes to mobile networks, law enforcement and privacy. On one hand, privacy is an inalienable right that we should all be entitled to, on the other hand, we elect governments with the expectation that they will be able to protect us from harm, physical or digital. 

Digital harm, until recently, was mostly illustrated by misrepresentation, scams or identity theft. Increasingly, though, it translates into the physical world, as attacks can impact not only one's reputation, credit rating but also one's job, banking and soon cars, and connected devices.

I have written at length about the erroneous assumptions that are underlying many of the discourses of net neutrality advocates. 
In order to understand net neutrality and traffic management, one has to understand the different perspectives involved.
  • Network operators compete against each other on price, coverage and more importantly network quality. In many cases, they have identified that improving or maintaining quality of Experience is the single most important success factor for acquiring and retaining customers. We have seen it time and again with voice services (call drops, voice quality…), messaging (texting capacity, reliability…) and data services (video start, stalls, page loading time…). These KPI are the heart of the operator’s business. As a result, operators tend to either try to improve or control user experience by deploying an array of traffic management functions, etc...
  • Content providers assume that highest quality of content (HD for video for instance) equals maximum experience for subscriber and therefore try and capture as much network resource as possible to deliver it. Browser / apps / phone manufacturers also assume that more speed equals better user experience, therefore try to commandeer as much capacity as possible. A reaction to operators trying to perform traffic management functions is to encrypt traffic to obfuscate it. 
The flaw here is the assumption that the optimum is the product of many maxima self-regulated by an equal and fair apportioning of resources. This shows a complete ignorance of how networks are designed, how they operate and how traffic flows through these networks.

This behavior leads to a network where resources can be in contention and all end-points vie for priority and maximum resource allocation. From this perspective one can understand that there is no such thing as "net neutrality" at least not in wireless networks. 

When network resources are over-subscribed, decisions are taken as to who gets more capacity, priority, speed... The question becomes who should be in position to make these decisions. Right now, the laissez-faire approach to net neutrality means that the network is not managed, it is subjected to traffic. When in contention, resources are managing traffic based on obscure rules in load balancers, routers, base stations, traffic management engines... This approach is the result of lazy, surface thinking. Net neutrality should be the opposite of non-intervention. Its rules should be applied equally to networks, devices / apps/browsers and content providers if what we want to enable is fair and equal access to resources.

Now, who said access to wireless should be fair and equal? Unless the networks are nationalized and become government assets, I do not see why private companies, in a competitive market couldn't manage their resources in order to optimize their utilization.


If we transport ourselves in a world where all traffic becomes encrypted overnight, networks lose the ability to manage traffic beyond allowing / stopping and fixing high level QoS metrics to specific services. That would lead to network operators being forced to charge exclusively for traffic tonnage. At this point, everyone has to pay per byte transmitted. The cost to users would become prohibitive as more and more video of higher resolution flow through the networks. It would mean also that these video providers could asphyxiate the other services... More importantly, it would mean that the user experience would become the fruit of the fight between content providers' ability to monopolize network capacity, which would go again any net neutrality's principles. A couple of content providers could dominate not only service but the access to these service as well.

The problem is that encryption makes most traffic management and lawful interception provisions extremely unlikely or at the least very inefficient. Privacy is an important facet of net neutrality's advocates' discourse. It is indeed the main reason many content and service providers are invoking for encrypting traffic. In many case, this might be a true concern, but it is hard to reconcile that with the fact that many provide encryption keys and certificates to third party networks or CDNs for instance to improve caching ratios, perform edge packaging or advertising insertion. There is nothing that would prevent this model to be extended to wireless networks to perform similar operations. Commercial interest has so far prevented these types of models to emerge.

If encryption continues to grow, and service providers deny to operators the capability to decrypt traffic, the traditional burden of lawful interception might be transferred to the former. Since many providers are transnational, what is defined as lawful interception is unlikely to be unenforceable. At this stage we might have to choose, as societies between digital security or privacy.
In all likeliness, though, one can hope that regulatory bodies will up their technical game and understand the nature of digital traffic in the 21st century. This should lead to lawful interception mandate being applicable equally to all parts of the delivery chain, which will force collaborative behavior between the actors. 

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

2015 review and 2016 predictions

As is now customary, I try to grade what I was predicting for 2015 and see what panned out and what didn't. I'll share as well what I see for 2016.

Content providers, creators, aggregators:

"They will need to simultaneously maximize monetization options by segmenting their user base into new price plans and find a way to unlock value in the mobile market.While many OTT, particularly social networks and radio/ audio streaming have collaborated and signed deals with mobile network operators, we are seeing also a tendency to increasingly encrypt and obfuscate online services to avoid network operators meddling in content delivery." 
On that front, I think that both predictions held true. I was envisioning encryption to jump from 10 to 30% of overall data traffic and I got that wrong, at least in many mature markets, where Netflix is big in mobile, we see upwards of 50% of traffic being encrypted. I still claim some prediction here, with one of my first post indicating the encryption trend 2 years before it started in earnest.

The prediction about segmentation from pricing as OTT services mature has been also largely fulfilled, with YouTube's 4th attempt, by my count, to launch a paid service. Additionally, the trend about content aggregators investing in original content rights acquisition is accelerating with Amazon gearing up for movie theaters and Netflix outspending traditional providers such as BBC with a combined investment by both company estimated in the 9$Bn range. Soon, we are talking real money.


In 2016, we will see an acceleration of traditional digital services that were originally launched for fixed line internet transitioning to predominantly mobile or mobile only plays. Right now, 47% of Facebook users are exclusively through  mobile and account for 78% of the company's revenue. More than 50% of YouTube views are on mobile devices and the corresponding revenue growth is over 100% year on year. 49% of Netflix' 18 to 34 years old demographics watches the service on mobile devices. We have seen signs with Twitter's vine,  and Periscope as well as Spotify , MTV and Facebook that the battlefield will be on video services.


Network operators: Wholesaler or value providers?

The operators in 2016 are still as confused, as a community as in 2015. They perceive threats from each other, which causes many acquisitions, from OTTs, which causes in equal measure many partnership and ill-advised service launches and from regulatory bodies, which causes lawyers to fatten up at the net neutrality / privacy buffet.
"we will see both more cooperation and more competition, with integrated offering (OTT could go full MVNO soon) and encrypted, obfuscated traffic on the rise". 
We spoke about encryption, the OTT going full MVNO was somewhat fulfilled by Google's disappointing project Fi launch. On the cooperation front, we have seen a flurry of announcements, mostly centered around sponsored data or zero rated subscription services from Verizon, AT&T.
"We will probably also see the first lawsuits from OTT to carriers with respect to traffic mediation, optimization and management. " 
I got that half right. No lawsuit from content providers but heavy fines from regulators on operators who throttle, cap or prioritize content (Sprint, AT&T, ...).

As for digital service providers, network operators are gearing themselves to compete on video services with services such as mobile TV /LTE broadcast (AT&T, EE, Telekom SlovenjeVodafone), events streaming (China Telecom, ), sponsored data / zero rated subscription services (Verizon, T-mobile Binge On, Sprint, AT&T, Telefonica, ...).

"Some operators will seek to actively manage and mediate the traffic transiting through their networks and will implement HTTPS / SPDY proxy to decrypt and optimize encrypted traffic, wherever legislation is more supple."
I got that dead wrong. Despite interest and trials, operators are not ready to go into open battle with OTT just yet. Decrypting encrypted traffic is certainly illegal in many countries
or at the very least hostile and seems to be only expected from government agencies...



Mobile Networks Technology

"CAPEX will be on the rise overall with heterogeneous networks and LTE roll-out taking the lion share of investments. LTE networks will show signs of weakness in term of peak traffic handling mainly due to video and audio streaming and some networks will accelerate LTE-A investments or aggressively curb traffic through data caps, throttles and onerous pricing strategies."
Check and check.
"SDN will continue its progress as a back-office and lab technology in mobile networks but its incapacity to provide reliable, secure, scalable and manageable network capability will prevent it to make a strong commercial debut in wireless networks. 2018 is the likeliest time frame."
I maintain the view that SDN is still too immature for mass deployment in mobile networks, although we have seen encouraging trials moving from lab to commercial, we are still a long way from a business case and technology maturity standpoint before we see a mobile network core or RAN running exclusively or mostly on SDN.
"NFV will show strong progress and first commercial deployments in wireless networks, but in vertical, proprietary fashion, with legacy functions (DPI, EPC, IMS...) translated in a virtualized environment in a mono vendor approach. "
We have seen many examples of that this year with various levels of industry and standard support from Connectem, Affirmed Networks, Ericsson, Cisco and Huawei.

"Orchestration and integration with SDN will be the key investments in the standardization community. The timeframe for mass market interoperable multi vendor commercial deployment is likely 2020."
Orchestration, MANO has certainly driven many initiatives (Telefonica OpenMANO) and acquisitions (Ciena acquired Cyan, for example) and remains the key challenge in 2016 and beyond. SDN NFV will not take off unless there is a programmatic framework to link customer facing services to internal services, to functions, to virtual resources to hardware resources in a multi-vendor fashion. I still maintain 2020 as the probable target for this.

In 2016, the new bit of technology I will investigate is Mobile Edge Computing, the capacity to deploy COTS in the radio network, unlocking virtualized services to be positioned at the network's edge, enabling IoT, automotive, Augmented Reality or Virtual Reality services that require minimal latency to access content even faster.


In conclusion, 2016 shows more than ever signs that the house of cards is about to collapse. Data traffic is increasing fast, video is now dominating every networks and it is just starting. With 4K and then 8k around the corner, without talking about virtual or augmented reality, many of the players in the value chain understand that video is going the next few years' battlefield in mobile, OTT and cloud services. This is why we are seeing so much concentration and pivot strategies in the field. 

What is new is the fact that if mobile was an ongoing concern or barely on the radar for many so-called OTT, it has now emerged as the predominant if not exclusive market segment in revenue. 
This means that more pressure will rain on network operators to offer bandwidth and speed. My reports and workshops show that mobile advertising is not growing fast enough in comparison to the subscribers eyeball moving to mobile screens. This is mostly due to the fact that video services in mobile networks are a pretty low quality service, which will get worse as more subscribers transition to LTE. The key to unlock the value chain will be collaboration between operators and OTT and that will only happen if/when a profitable business model and apportioning of costs is worked out.

At last, my prediction about selfie kills seem to unfortunately have been fulfilled with selfies now killing more people than shark attacks. Inevitably, we have to conclude that in 2016, commercial drones and hoverboards will kill more people than selfies...


That's all folks, see you at MWC next month.

Monday, June 8, 2015

Data traffic optimization feature set

Data traffic optimization in wireless networks has reached a mature stage as a technology . The innovations that have marked the years 2008 – 2012 are now slowing down and most core vendors exhibit a fairly homogeneous feature set. 

The difference comes in the implementation of these features and can yield vastly different results, depending on whether vendors are using open source or purpose-built caching or transcoding engines and whether congestion detection is based on observed or deduced parameters.

Vendors tend nowadays to differentiate on QoE measurement / management, monetization strategies including content injection, recommendation and advertising.

Here is a list of commonly implemented optimization techniques in wireless networks.
  •  TCP optimization
    • Buffer bloat management
    • Round trip time management
  • Web optimization
    • GZIP
    •  JPEG / PNG… transcoding
    • Server-side JavaScript
    • White space / comments… removal
  • Lossless optimization
    • Throttling / pacing
    • Caching
    • Adaptive bit rate manipulation
    • Manifest mediation
    • Rate capping
  • Lossy optimization
    • Frame rate reduction
    • Transcoding
      • Online
      • Offline
      • Transrating
    • Contextual optimization
      • Dynamic bit rate adaptation
      • Device targeted optimization
      • Content targeted optimization
      • Rule base optimization
      • Policy driven optimization
      • Surgical optimization / Congestion avoidance
  • Congestion detection
    • TCP parameters based
    • RAN explicit indication
    • Probe based
    • Heuristics combination based
  • Encrypted traffic management
    • Encrypted traffic analytics
    • Throttling / pacing
    • Transparent proxy
    • Explicit proxy
  • QoE measurement
    • Web
      • page size
      • page load time (total)
      • page load time (first rendering)
    • Video
      • Temporal measurements
        • Time to start
        • Duration loading
        • Duration and number of buffering interruptions
        • Changes in adaptive bit rates
        • Quantization
        • Delivery MOS
      • Spatial measurements
        • Packet loss
        • Blockiness
        • Blurriness
        • PSNR / SSIM
        • Presentation MOS


An explanation of each technology and its feature set can be obtained as part of the mobile video monetization report series or individually as a feature report or in a workshop.

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Video Monetization 2015 report and market shares released

Live from Las Vegas, where I am at NAB, for the week, the mobile video monetization and optimization 2015 report is now released. You can find the updated description and executive summary there, as usual, table of contents and terms are available upon request, do not hesitate to contact me (patrick.lopez@coreanalysis.ca).

As usual, I provide market share calculations in term of deployment per vendor, the unit being one operator / country. For instance, Verizon Wireless counts for one deployment, even though the operator might deploy 40+ data centres. Groups such as Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom or Telefonica count for each of the properties where the technology is deployed.

For this 2015 edition, we have seen quite a lot of changes year on year and an acceleration from the trends highlighted in last update, ranging from the continuing growth of mobile data and video traffic, complicated by the increasing encryption and privacy concerns. 


Emerging markets and MVNO with smaller volumes fuel the growth with lower price points and tier 1 replacements are slowing down due to regulatory uncertainty. It is hard to predict how long this is going to last, but I am betting on a protracted battle and operators slowly having to take investment decisions despite uncertainty because their network is under too much pressure. TCP optimization, caching, throttling will continue to lead engagements in countries under strong regulatory mandate or uncertainty, while transcoding, DBRA and other lossy technologies will continue to lead in emerging and weak regulatory environments.

The mobile video monetization and optimization market segment researched in this report is composed of 8 primary vendors.

2015 has seen a great change in market shares, as indicated in the previous reports and throughout my quarterly updates. You can find the fall's market shares here, if you want to track the vendors' progression.
  1. Citrix keeps its historical market leader spot, with a slight progression to 32%. 
  2. Flash Networks had lost the number 1 spot last update and is maintaining itself at 31%. 
  3. Openwave is solidly in third place, growing to 13%.
  4. Fourth place is now claimed by Allot, with the fastest progression this update to 7%, 
  5. Vantrix is in a slight decline at 6%. 
  6. Nokia declines to 5% and has decided to resell Flash networks going forward. 
  7. Opera has declined to 4%. 
  8. Avvasi closes the market share with a growth to 2%.
The market share calculations are based on a proprietary {Core Analysis} database, collecting data such as vendors, re-sellers, value of the deployment in term of total cost of ownership for the operator, operator name, country, region and number of mobile broadband subscribers. These data are cross-referenced from vendors' and operators' individual disclosures. This database also includes over 130 opportunities in video optimization that are at different stage of maturity (internal evaluation, vendor trial, RFI, RFx...) and will close over the next 18 months.


To understand the vendors' trajectory, velocity and strategy better, contact me.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

MWC15 newslist

If You have been struggling to keep up to date with all the announcements and releases at Mobile World Congress last week, here is the list of what has caught my eye from the companies I follow or I have met in the domain of video monetization and SDN / NFV.
As usual, interviews, trajectory, strategy and analysis in my upcoming report on "Mobile video monetization 2015".


Allot Communications

Allot Launches SmartEngage Enabling Mobile Operators to Increase Subscriber Service Uptake
Allot Communications to Acquire Operations of Optenet, a Leading Security-as-a-Service Solution Provider
Allot MobileTrends Report Reveals Security-as-a-Service is a Clear Revenue Generator for CSPs

Avvasi

Brocade

Brocade to Acquire Connectem; Extends Leadership in New IP to Mobile Networks

Cisco

Citrix

Ericsson


Flash Networks

Huawei

Huawei Collaborates with Intel to Deliver Public Cloud Solutions for Global Telecom Carriers
Huawei Redefines Hybrid Clouds with FusionCloud Omni Solution
Huawei Releases Industry’s First High Throughput Router (HTR) for an Optimized Ultra-HD Video Experience

Nokia

Orange, Nokia Networks team up on Telco Cloud

Openwave Mobility

Opera

NEC

NEC enhances Traffic Management Solution that maximizes ROI for communication service providersNEC and F5 Networks form traffic management partnership

Procera Networks

Procera Networks’ NAVL Engine Powers Connectem vEPC for Telekom Austria Group
Roundbox
Procera Networks Deployed for Video Analytics by Tier 1 Broadband Operator
Procera Networks Partners with Dell for COTS NFV Solutions
ETSI NFV Proof of Concept Demonstrates Virtualized Real-Time OSS/BSS


Saguna Networks

SoftBank Ventures and Akamai Technologies make a strategic investment in Saguna Networks
Saguna Expands Open-RAN Platform Bringing CDNs, Content Caching and OTTs Together in the Mobile Radio Edge
Akamai and Saguna Win Best Innovation based on Network Intelligence Award at #MWC15
Telefonica


Vantrix

Kontron and Vantrix Smash DSP Cost and Performance Barriers With Network Functions Virtualization Speech Transcoding Solution
Vantrix Showcases Network Functions Virtualization Optimization Solution with HP at Mobile World Congress 2015
Vantrix to Demo Ultra-High-Density Media Optimization and Speech Processing at Mobile World Congress 2015

Vasona Networks

Vasona Networks Tackles Congestion Management Issues Caused By Rise Of Encrypted Traffic On Mobile Networks

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

2014 review and 2015 predictions

Last year, around this time, I had made some predictions for 2014. Let's have a look at how I fared and I'll risk some opinions for 2015.
Before predictions, though, new year, new web site, check it out at coreanalysis.ca

Content providers, creators, aggregators:

"OTT video content providers are reaching a stage of maturity where content creation / acquisition was the key in the first phase, followed by subscriber acquisition. As they reach critical mass, the game will change and they will need to simultaneously maximize monetization options by segmenting their user base into new price plans and find a way to unlock value in the mobile market." 
On that front, content creation / acquisition still remains a key focus of large video OTT (See Netflix' launch of Marco Polo for $90m). Netflix has reported  $8.9B of content obligations as of September 2014. On the monetization, front, we have also seen signs of maturity, with YouTube experimenting on new premium channels and Netflix charging premium for 4K streaming. HBO has started to break out of its payTV shell and has signed deals to be delivered as online broadband only subscriptions, without cable/satellite.
Netflix has signed a variety of deals with european MSOs and broadband operators as they launched there in 2014.
While many OTT, particularly social networks and radio/ audio streaming have collaborated and signed deals with mobile network operators, we are seeing also a tendency to increasingly encrypt and obfuscate online services to avoid network operators meddling in content delivery.
Both trends will likely accelerate in 2015, with more deals being struck between OTT and network operators for subscription-based zero-rated data services. We will also see in mobile networks the proportion of encrypted data traffic raise from the low 10's to at least 30% of the overall traffic.

Wholesaler or Value provider?


The discussion about the place of the network operator and MSO in content and service delivery is still very much active. We have seen, late last year, the latest net neutrality sword rattling from network operators and OTT alike, with even politicians entering the fray and trying to influence the regulatory debates. This will likely not be setted in 2015. As a result, we will see both more cooperation and more competition, with integrated offering (OTT could go full MVNO soon) and encrypted, obfuscated traffic on the rise. We will probably also see the first lawsuits from OTT to carriers with respect to traffic mediation, optimization and management. This adversarial climate will delay further monetization plays relying on mobile advertisement. Only integrated offering between OTT and carriers will be able to avail from this revenue source.
Some operators will step away from the value provider strategy and will embrace wholesale models, trying to sign as many MVNO and OTT as possible, focusing on network excellence. These strategies will fail as the price per byte will decline inexorably, unable to sustain a business model where more capacity requires more investment for diminishing returns.
Some operators will seek to actively manage and mediate the traffic transiting through their networks and will implement HTTPS / SPDY proxy to decrypt and optimize encrypted traffic, wherever legislation is more supple.

Mobile Networks

CAPEX will be on the rise overall with heterogeneous networks and LTE roll-out taking the lion share of investments. 
LTE networks will show signs of weakness in term of peak traffic handling mainly due to video and audio streaming and some networks will accelerate LTE-A investments or aggressively curb traffic through data caps, throttles and onerous pricing strategies.

SDN will continue its progress as a back-office and lab technology in mobile networks but its incapacity to provide reliable, secure, scalable and manageable network capability will prevent it to make a strong commercial debut in wireless networks. 2018 is the likeliest time frame.

NFV will show strong progress and first commercial deployments in wireless networks, but in vertical, proprietary fashion, with legacy functions (DPI, EPC, IMS...) translated in a virtualized environment in a mono vendor approach. We will see also micro deployments in emerging markets where cost of ownership takes precedence over performance or reliability. APAC will also see some commercial deployments in large networks (Japan, Korea) in fairly proprietary implementations.
Orchestration and integration with SDN will be the key investments in the standardization community. The timeframe for mass market interoperable multi vendor commercial deployment is likely 2020.

To conclude this post, my last prediction is that someone will likely be bludgeoned to death with their own selfie stick, I'll put my money on Mobile World Congress 2015 as a likely venue, where I am sure countless companies will give them away, to the collective exasperation and eye-rolling of the Barcelona population.

That's all folks, see you soon at one of the 2015 shows.

Monday, October 27, 2014

HTTP 2.0, SPDY, encryption and wireless networks

I had mused, three and half years ago, at the start of this blog, that content providers might decide to encrypt and tunnel traffic in the future in order to retain control of the user experience.

It is amazing that wireless browsing is becoming increasingly the medium of choice for access to the internet, but the technology it relies on is still designed for fixed, high capacity, lossless, low latency networks. One would think that one would design a technology for its primary (and most challenging) use case and adapt it for more generous conditions instead of the other way around... but I am ranting again.

We are now definitely seeing this prediction accelerate since Google introduced SPDY and proposed it as default for HTTP 2.0.
While HTTP 2.0 latest draft is due to be completed this month, many players in the industry are silently but definitely committing resources to the battle.

SPDY, in its current version does not enhance and in many cases, decreases user experience in wireless networks. Its implementation of TCP lets it too dependant on round trip time, which in turns creates race conditions in lossy networks. SPDY can actually contribute to congestion rather than reduce it in wireless networks.

On one side content providers are using net neutrality arguments to further their case for the need for encryption. They are conflating security (NSA leaks...), privacy (apple cloud leaks) and net neutrality (equal, and if possible free access to networks) concerns.

On the other side, network operators, vendors are trying to argue that net neutrality does not mean not intervening, that the good of the overall users is subverted when some content providers and browser/client vendors use aggressive and predatory tactics to monopolize bandwidth in the name of QoE.

At this point, things are still fairly fluid. Google is proposing that most / all traffic be encrypted by default, while network operators are trying to introduce the concept of trusted proxies that can decrypt / encrypt under certain conditions and user's ascent.

Both these attempts are short-sighted and doomed to fail in my mind and are the result of aggressive strategies to establish market dominance.

In a perfect world, the device, network and content provider negotiate service quality based on device capabilities, subscriber data plan, network capacity and content quality. Technologies such as adaptive bit rate could have been tremendously efficient here, but the operating word in the previous sentence is "negotiate", which assumes collaboration, discovery and access to relevant information to take decisions.

 In the current state of affair, adaptive bit rate is often times corrupted in order to seize as much network bandwidth as possible, which results in devices and service providers aggressively competing for bits and bytes.
Network operators tend to either try to improve or control user experience by deploying DPI, transparent caches, pacing technology, traffic shaping engines, video transcoding, etc...

Content providers assume that highest quality of content (HD for video for instance) equals maximum experience for subscriber and therefore try and capture as much network resource as possible to deliver it. Browser / apps / phone manufacturers also assume that more speed equals better user experience, therefore try to commandeer as much capacity as possible. The flaw here is the assumption that the optimum is the product of many maxima self regulated by an equal and fair apportioning of resources. This shows a complete ignorance of how networks are designed, how they operate and how traffic flows through these networks.

This behaviour leads to a network where all resources are perpetually in contention and all end-points vie for priority and maximum resource allocation. From this perspective one can understand that there is no such thing as "net neutrality" at least not in wireless networks. When network resources are over-subscribed, decisions are taken as to who gets more capacity, priority, speed... The question becomes who should be in position to make these decisions. Right now, the laissez-faire approach to net neutrality means that the network is not managed, it is subjected to traffic. When in contention, resources are managing traffic based on obscure rules in load balancers, routers, base stations, traffic management engines... This approach is the result of lazy, surface thinking. Net neutrality should be the opposite of non intervention. Its rules should be applied equally to networks, devices / apps/browsers and content providers if what we want to enable is fair and equal access to resources.

Now, who said access to wireless should be fair and equal? Unless the networks are nationalized and become government assets, I do not see why private companies, in a competitive market couldn't manage their resources in order to optimize their utilization.

If we transport ourselves in a world where all traffic becomes encrypted overnight, networks lose the ability to manage traffic beyond allowing / stopping and fixing high level QoS metrics to specific services. That would lead to network operators being forced to charge exclusively for traffic. At this point, everyone has to pay per byte transmitted. The cost to users would become prohibitive as more and more video of higher resolution flow through the networks. It would mean also that these video providers could asphyxiate the other services... More importantly, it would mean that the user experience would become the fruit of the fight between content providers; ability to monopolize network capacity, which would go again any "net neutrality" principle. A couple of content providers could dominate not only service but the access to these service as well.

The best rationale against this scenario is commercial. Advertising is the only common business model that supports pay TV and many web services today. The only way to have an efficient, high CPM ad model in wireless is to make it relevant and contextual. The only that is going to happen is if the advertising is injected as close to the user as possible. That means collaboration. Network operators cannot provide subscriber data to third party, so they have to exploit and anonymize it themselves. Which means encryption, if needed must occur after ad insertion, which need to occur at the network edge.

The most optimally  commercially efficient model for all parties involved is through collaboration and advertising, but current battle plans show adversarial models, where obfuscation and manipulation are used to reduce opponents margin of maneuver. Complete analysis and scenario in my video monetization report here.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

The best way to deliver video to mobile?

An article form Gigaom's Ryan Lawler recently caught my eye as a potential game changer in the mobile video delivery market and got me thinking.

As a user of mobile video, I get often frustrated by latency, stop and go, long loading times, etc...
I can't imagine that content owners can be too happy about video experience being mangled for their customers.

If we look at the trend for content control and compression, the early way to reduce content size, at the time of dial up and mobile narrow band was compression and encryption.
The main problem was that it required a client. Clients were difficult and expensive to update, fix, maintain over the air, so the business model died.

Fast forward 10 years later, seemingly everyone walks around with a smartphone or wants one. One of the major catalysts for the smartphone adoptions has been the apps explosion. Apps are nothing more than standardized clients that can be downloaded, upgraded over the air...

My YouTube app is a client with an embedded player that allows me to navigate and select content in a predefined manner. It is similar to my browser experience but at the same time a little different. In a browser, Google, Microsoft, Apple control my user experience. In the YouTube app, YouTube controls my user experience.

In the case of mobile CDNs, there is an additional potential benefit to reduce cost of delivery by hosting, caching, delivering content as close to the user as possible.

If you add to this the trend towards using P2P technology for video delivery,YouTube, Dailymotion, Akamai, Limelight... could decide to encrypt and tunnel the traffic, to try and keep control of the user experience.

I will examine the potential implications of this scenario in a future post and look at possible alternatives.