Showing posts with label ARPU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ARPU. Show all posts

Monday, September 11, 2023

Why was virtualized RAN started?

 


Traditional RAN equipment vendors have developed and deployed RAN solutions in every band, in every generation, for any network configuration. This doesn’t happen without an extremely well industrialized process, with rigid interfaces and change management. This cumulative intellectual property, together with the capacity to deploy in a few months a new generation of network is what operators have been valuing until now.

The creation of a new Radio platform is a large investment, in the range of tens of millions, with a development timeframe extending from 18 to 30 months. Because it is a complex solution, underpinned with large hardware dependencies, it requires very good planning and development management only available to highly industrialized companies. The development of subsequent radios on the same platform might take less time and costs, but essentially the economics remain the same, you need at least 10,000 units of firm order, for a radio to be economically viable.

It is expensive because it works. As long as you don’t mind being essentially dependent of your vendor for all professional services associated with their product, they can guarantee it will work. This part is key, because taking sole responsibility for deployment, operation and maintenance of a radio system is a huge undertaking. Essentially, the traditional vendors are selling together with equipment and services an insurance policy in the form of onerous Service Level Agreements (SLA), willing to undertake penalties and damages in case of failure.

Unfortunately, most network operators find themselves in a situation where, with the reduction of their Average Revenue per User (ARPU) combined with the perpetual traffic growth and appetite for video streaming, they see their costs steadily increase and their margins compressed. Connectivity seems increasingly like a commodity from a customer standpoint, with easy availability and low friction to change provider, whereas it comes at an increasing cost for its operators.

Changing the cost structure of buying capacity is a must for all networks operators to survive, and it touches all aspects of their network.

Fortunately, there are a few markets that have seen similar needs in the past and solutions have emerged. Particularly, the internet giants, video streaming services and social networks, have had to face explosive growth of traffic, with essentially flat pricing or advertising-based revenue models which forced them to reimagine how to scale their network capacity.

From there have emerged technologies such as network virtualization, Software Defined Networking (SDN) and their higher levels of abstraction leading to the cloud computing market as we know it.

Applying these methods and technologies to the RAN market seemed like a sensible and effective way to change its cost structure.

Monday, February 23, 2015

The future is cloudy: NFV 2020 part II

I have received some comments after my previous post arguing that maybe the future of SDN and NFV is not as far as I am predicting. As we are all basking in the pre Mobile World Congress excitement, inundated by announcements from vendors and operators alike trying to catch the limelight before the deafening week begins, I thought I would clarify some of my thoughts.

We have seen already this week some announcements of virtualization plans, products and even deployments.

One of the main problems with a revolutionary approach such SDN and/or NFV implementation is that it suggests a complete network overhaul to deliver its full benefits. In all likeliness, no network operator is able to operate fully these kind of changes in less than a 10 years' timescale, so what to do first?

The choice is difficult, since there are a few use cases that seem easy enough to roll out but deliver little short term benefits (vCPE, some routing and switching functions...) while the projects that should deliver the highest savings, the meaty ones, seem quite far from maturity (EPC, IMS, c-RAN...). Any investment on this front is going to be just that...an investment with little to no return in the short term.

The problem is particularly difficult to solve because most of the value associated with virtualization of mobile networks in the short term is supposedly ties to capex and opex savings. I have previously highlighted this trend and it is not abating, more like accelerating.
Islands of SDN or NFV implementations in a sea of legacy network elements is not going to generate much saving. It could arguably generate new revenue streams if these were used to launch new services, but today’s focus has been so far to emulate and translate physical function and networks into virtualized ones, with little effort in term of new service creation.

As a result, the business case to deploy SDN or NFV in a commercial network today is negative and likely to stay so for the next few years. I expect the momentum to continue, though, since it will have to work and to deliver the expected savings for network operators to stand a chance to stay in business.

The other side of this coin is the service offering.  While flexibility, time to market and capacity to launch new services are always quoted as some of the benefits of network virtualization, it seems that many operators have given up on innovation and service creation. The examples of new services are few and far between and I would hope that these would be the object of more focused efforts.

At last, it seems that maybe one of my previsions will be fulfilled shortly, a friend pointed out that this year's GSMA freebee for its member at the show will be... a selfie stick.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Impact of Iliad's purchase of T-Mobile

Last month, I was musing about a world where wireless voice and messaging ARPU would be 0$.

While many are discovering the bid by Iliad to take over T-Mobile US, I have been following the company for nearly two years in its successful market introduction in France.

I thought it would be interesting to have a look at what has been the impact to date of Iliad on the French mobile market as a reference point.


Iliad launched a mobile service in France in January 2012 under the brand free Mobile. The offer was simple and a perfect disruption to the highly-regulated market. Building on their broadband payTV set top box offer, Iliad secured 3G and 4G licenses from the french regulator and started offering for free mobile services to their payTV customers.


The offering

Shortly thereafter, the company launched a disruptive offer: 19.99 euros per month for unlimited national (all) and international (fixed line) voice calls , unlimited text and picture messages in europe, 3GB of data in 3G and 20GB in 4G.
To accelerate their customer acquisition for the moderate users, the group launched in 2013 a no contract 2 euro per month deal for 2 hours national and international voice calls, unlimited text and picture messages in europe, and 50MB of data.


The results

This disruption was a commercial and popular success for the company but a disaster for the incumbents. 
Dominated by Orange, followed by SFR and Bouygues, the market was deeply disturbed by this introduction.

In two years, here is the impact of Iliad on the french market:

  • Iliad as of March 2014 counted 8.6 million subscribers representing 13% market share and generating 1.2 billion euros of revenue.
  • Iliad in 2014 covers 50% of the french population in 4G and 75% in 3G.
  • Iliad's network quality has been rated worse of all French operators but the company ranks first in customer satisfaction.
  • Average turnover by mobile operators decreased by 11% in 2012 and 13% in 2013 and net income by 20%
  • Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) has decreased by 22% 
  • Collectively, operators increased their CAPEX investments to 7.3 billion euros in 2013 (excluding licenses).
  • Collective free cash flow has decreased by 40%

Conclusions

Of course, it would be difficult to draw a direct parallel between the successful introduction strategy of Iliad in France and what would happen if they purchased T-Mobile in the US. Nonetheless, Iliad is probably the company that has acquired the most customers in the shortest amount of time of all wireless operators globally, while focusing on what matters most: customer satisfaction. Of course a disruptive pricing strategy was the main vehicle for introduction, but ease of use, with no-contract offers, unlocked phones packaged or not with subscription were a large part of the company success as well. 

The lessons to draw here are that network operators need to prepare for a world where ARPU can drastically reduce while structural investments increase. Flexibility, elasticity but more importantly a customer centric approach will make the difference.
The themes are further addressed and analysed in my latest report to be released in September: SDN / NFV in wireless networks.