Where Do Network Operators Go From Here? A View Ahead of MWC 2026

With Mobile World Congress just around the corner in Barcelona, the telecom sector finds itself at another inflection point. The headlines are familiar: ongoing layoffs across major operators, C-level reshuffles, persistent ARPU erosion, and debt structures that constrain organic investment. Vendors are already talking up 6G roadmaps while AI dominates conversations—both for aggressive OPEX reduction and tentative new revenue paths. Yet the near-term reality feels more evolutionary than revolutionary.

The recent wave of workforce reductions is not, in my view, primarily an AI story—at least not yet. It reflects the long tail of a structural shift that began over a decade ago: the gradual but relentless transition from proprietary telco platforms to cloud-native architectures. We are finally seeing the full operational benefits of user/control-plane separation, hardware/software disaggregation, widespread network virtualization, and centralized policy orchestration. These changes deliver greater automation, elastic scaling, and dramatically shorter development and validation cycles. The outcome is clear: managing a modern mobile network no longer requires the headcount levels of the previous era. Painful as the adjustment is, it is the inevitable consequence of borrowing proven cloud-native principles. Cost discipline is essential, but it is not a growth strategy. The more pressing question is how operators convert more reliable, elastic, and automated networks into sustainable revenue expansion.

Private Networks: Successes Exist, but They Remain Hard-Won

Private cellular networks continue to polarize opinion. Some portray them as a commercial disappointment; others point to hundreds of documented use cases. The reality sits firmly in between. Genuine deployments delivering positive returns do exist, particularly in verticals with high-value connectivity requirements and tolerance for tailored solutions. Energy (smart grids and remote monitoring), healthcare (indoor coverage in hospitals and clinics), large venues (stadiums and event spaces), mining (autonomous haulage and safety systems), and ports (crane automation and terminal logistics) stand out as segments where demand is tangible and economics can work. The common thread in successful cases is not technology alone but deployment philosophy: cloud-native designs that run on commodity hardware, leverage centralized intelligence, and minimize site-specific customization. When executed this way, private networks become scalable and margin-accretive rather than bespoke projects that drain resources. Operators who treat private 5G as an extension of their public edge and orchestration capabilities—rather than isolated silos—are better positioned to capture repeatable value.

Data: The Next Realistic Monetization Frontier

Beyond connectivity and private networks, operators sit on an underutilized asset: vast quantities of network-derived and network-transported data. Until recently most of this information has been siloed for internal analytics, dashboards, and regulatory reporting. That picture is beginning to change. Monetization remains nascent compared with the advertising-driven models of social platforms, yet the opportunity is material. API gateways that expose selected network and user context (location aggregates, mobility patterns, congestion signals, roaming events) represent only the surface layer. Consider a few practical illustrations:

• Ride-hailing platforms could benefit from near-real-time insight into clusters of international roamers converging in a city district—an indicator of an upcoming conference, trade show, or major event. Pre-positioning drivers becomes more efficient, improving service levels and reducing wait times.
• eSIM and travel-focused virtual operators could package value-added bundles—discounted car rentals, hotel reservations, restaurant bookings, or attraction tickets—targeted at detected travelers arriving in high-demand locations.
• Navigation services (Google Maps, Waze, and equivalents) could gain from telco-sourced, fine-grained congestion and flow data that augments probe-vehicle inputs, especially in areas with sparse device coverage or during atypical events. Privacy and regulatory compliance are non-negotiable hurdles, as are competitive dynamics with hyperscalers and data aggregators. Success will depend on responsible data handling, anonymization at scale, clear value propositions for enterprise partners, and commercial models that avoid commoditization. Operators that can evolve from pure connectivity providers toward curated data intermediaries—leveraging their unique position across physical infrastructure, subscriber scale, and real-time network telemetry—stand to capture incremental revenue without requiring entirely new network builds. As we head to MWC 2026, the conversation will likely revolve around AI acceleration, 6G timelines, and edge monetization. Beneath the buzz, though, the fundamentals remain: disciplined cost management, selective private-network wins, and thoughtful exploration of data opportunities. What are you seeing in your markets? Are private networks crossing the chasm in specific verticals? And where do you place data monetization on the priority list for the next 18–24 months? I welcome your perspectives in the comments.

Readout: Ericsson's Mobility Report June 2024

 

It has been a few years now, since Ericsson has taken to provide a yearly report on their view of the evolution of connectivity. Alike Cisco's annual internet report, it provides interesting data points on telecom technology and services' maturity, but focused on cellular technology, lately embracing fixed-wireless access and non terrestrial networks as well. 

In this year's edition, a few elements caught my attention:

• Devices supporting network slicing are few and far in-between. Only iOS 17 and Android 13 support some capabilities to indicate slicing parameters to their underlying applications. These devices are the higher end latest smartphones, so it is no wonder that 5G Stand Alone is late in delivering on its promises, if end to end slicing is only possible for a small fraction of customers. It is still possible to deploy slicing without device support, but there are limitations, most notably slicing per content / service, while slicing per device or subscriber profile is possible.
  
  
• RedCap (5G reduced Capability) for IoT, wearables, sensors, etc... is making its appearance on the networks, mostly as demo and trials at this stage. The first devices are unlikely to emerge in mass market availability until end of next year.
  
  
• Unsurprisingly, mobile data traffic is still growing, albeit at a lower rate than previously reported with a 25% yearly growth rate or just over 6% quarterly. The growth is mostly due to smartphones and 5G penetration and video consumption, accounting for about 73% of the traffic. This traffic data includes Fixed Wireless Access, although it is not broken down. The rollout of 5G, particularly in mid-band, together with carrier aggregation has allowed mobile network operators to efficiently compete with fixed broadband operators with FWA. FWA's growth, in my mind is the first successful application of 5G as a differentiated connectivity product. As devices and modems supporting slicing appear, more sophisticated connectivity and pricing models can be implemented. FWA price packages differ markedly from mobile data plans. The former are mostly speed based, emulating cable and fibre offering, whereas the latter are usually all you can eat best effort connectivity.
  
  
• Where the traffic growth projections become murky, is with the impact of XR services. Mixed, augmented, virtual reality services haven't really taken off yet, but their possible impact on traffic mix and network load can be immense. XR requires a number of technologies to reach maturity at the same time (bendable / transparent screens, low power, portable, heat efficient batteries, low latency / high compute on device / at the edge, high down/ up link capabilities, deterministic mash latency over an area...) to reach mass market and we are still some ways away from it in my opinion.
  
  
• Differential connectivity for cellular services is a long standing subject of interest of mine. My opinion remains the same: "The promise and business case of 5G was supposed to revolve around new connectivity services. Until now, essentially, whether you have a smartphone, a tablet, a laptop, a connected car, an industrial robot and whether you are a working from home or road warrior professional, all connectivity products are really the same. The only variable are the price and coverage.
  
  5G was supposed to offer connectivity products that could be adapted to different device types, verticals and industries, geographies, vehicles, drones,... The 5G business case hinges on enterprises, verticals and government adoption and willingness to pay for enhanced connectivity services. By and large, this hasn't happened yet. There are several reasons for this, the main one being that to enable these, a network overall is necessary.
  
  First, a service-based architecture is necessary, comprising 5G Stand Alone, Telco cloud and Multi-Access Edge Computing (MEC), Service Management and Orchestration are necessary. Then, cloud-native RAN, either cloud RAN or Open RAN (but particularly the RAN Intelligent Controllers - RICs) would be useful. All this "plumbing" to enable end to end slicing, which in turn will create the capabilities to serve distinct and configurable connectivity products.
  
  But that's not all... A second issue is that although it is accepted wisdom that slicing will create connectivity products that enterprises and governments will be ready to pay for, there is little evidence of it today. One of the key differentiators of the "real" 5G and slicing will be deterministic speed and latency. While most actors of the market are ready to recognize that in principle a controllable latency would be valuable, no one really knows the incremental value of going from variable best effort to deterministic 100, 10 or 5 millisecond latency.
  
  The last hurdle, is the realization by network operators that Mercedes, Wallmart, 3M, Airbus... have a better understanding of their connectivity needs than any carrier and that they have skilled people able to design networks and connectivity services in WAN, cloud, private and cellular networks. All they need is access and a platform with APIs. A means to discover, reserve, design connectivity services on the operator's network will be necessary and the successful operators will understand that their network skillset might be useful for consumers and small / medium enterprises, but less so for large verticals, government and companies." Ericsson is keen to promote and sell the "plumbing" to enable this vision to MNOs, but will this be sufficient to fulfill the promise?
  
  
• Network APIs are a possible first step to open up the connectivity to third parties willing to program it. Network APIs is notably absent from the report, maybe due to the fact that the company announced a second impairment charge of 1.1B$ (after a 2.9B$ initial write off) in less than a year on the 6.2B$ acquisition of Vonage.
  
  
• Private networks are another highlighted trend in the report with a convincing example of an implementation with Northstar innovation program, in collaboration with Telia and Astazero. The implementation focuses on automotive applications, from autonomous vehicle, V2X connectivity, remote control... On paper, it delivers everything operators dream about when thinking of differentiated connectivity for verticals and industries. One has to wonder how much it costs and whether it is sustainable if most of the technology is provided by a single vendor.
  
  
• Open RAN and Programmable networks is showcased in AT&T's deal that I have previously reported and commented. There is no doubt that single vendor automation, programmability and open RAN can be implemented at scale. The terms of the deal with AT&T seem to indicate that it is a great cost benefit for them. We will have to measure the benefits as the changes are being rolled out in the coming years.

Why are the US government and DoD in particular interested in Open RAN?

Over the last 24 months, it has been very interesting to see that the US Government has been moving from keen interest in Open RAN to make it policy for its procurement of connectivity technology.

As I am preparing to present for next week's RIC Forum, organized by NTIA and the US Department of Defense, many of my clients have been asking why the US Government seems so invested in Open RAN.

Supply chain diversification:

The first reason for this interest is the observation that the pool of network equipment provider has been growing increasingly shallow. The race from 3G to 4G to 5G has required vendors to attain a high level of industrialization and economy of scale, that has been achieved through many rounds of concentration. A limited supply chain with few vendors per category represents a strategic risk for the actor relying on this supply chain to operate economically. Open RAN allows the emergence of new vendors in specific categories that do not necessitate the industrial capacity to be delivering end to end RAN networks.

Cost effectiveness:

The lack of vendor choice has shifted negotiating power from network operators to vendors, which has negatively impacted margins and capacity to make changes. The emergence of new Open RAN vendors puts pressure on incumbents and traditional vendors to reduce their margins.

Geostrategic interest:

The growth of Huawei, ZTE and other Chinese vendors, with their suspected links to the Chinese government and Army, together with the somewhat obscure privacy and security laws there, has prompted the US government and many allies to ban or severely restraint the categories of Telecom Products that can be deployed in many telecom networks.

Furthermore, while US companies dominate traffic management, routing, data centers and hyperscalers space, the RAN, core network and general telco infrastructure remains dominated by European and Asian vendors. Open RAN has been an instrument to facilitate and accelerate Chinese vendors replacement, but also to stimulate the US vendors to emerge and grow.

DoD use case example: Spectrum Dominance

This area is less well understood and recognized but is an integral part of US Government generally and DoD's in particular interest in Open RAN. Private networks require connectivity products adapted for specific use cases, devices and geographies. Commercial macro networks offer "one size fits all" solution that are difficult and costly to adapt for that purpose. Essentially DoD runs hundreds of private networks, whether on its bases, its carriers or in ad hoc tactical environments. Being able to setup a secure, programmable, cost effective network, either permanently or ad hoc is an essential requirement, and can also become a differentiator or a force multiplier. A tactical unit deploying an ad hoc network might look at means not only to create a secure subnet, but also to establish spectrum dominance by manipulating waveforms and effectively interfering with adverse networks. This is one example where programmability at the RAN level can turn into an asset for battlefield dominance. There are many more use cases, but their classification might not enable us to publicly comment them. They illustrate though how technological dominance can extend to every aspect of telecom.

Open RAN in that respect provides programmability, cost effectiveness and modularity to create fit for purpose connectivity experiences in a multi vendor environment.

Announcing Private Networks 2024

Telecoms cellular networks, delivered by network operators, have traditionally been designed to provide coverage and best effort performance for consumers' general use. This design prioritizes high population density areas, emphasizing cost-effective delivery of coverage solutions with a network architecture treating all connections uniformly, effectively sharing available bandwidth. In some markets, net neutrality provisions further restrict the prioritization of devices, applications, or services over others.

Enterprises, governments, and organizations often turn to private networks due to two primary reasons. First, there may be no commercial network coverage in their operational areas. Second, even when commercial networks are present, they may fail to meet the performance requirements of these entities. Private networks offer a tailored solution, allowing organizations to have dedicated, secure, and high-performance connectivity, overcoming limitations posed by commercial networks.

Enterprise, industries, and government IT departments have developed a deep understanding of their unique connectivity requirements over the years. Recognizing the critical role that connectivity plays in their operations, these entities have sought solutions that align closely with their specific needs. Before the advent of 5G technology, Wi-Fi emerged as a rudimentary form of private networks, offering a more localized and controlled connectivity option compared to traditional cellular networks. However, there were certain limitations and challenges associated with Wi-Fi, and the costs of establishing and operating fully-fledged private networks were often prohibitive.

Enterprises, industries, and government organizations operate in diverse and complex environments, each with its own set of challenges and requirements. These entities understand that a one-size-fits-all approach to connectivity is often inadequate. Different sectors demand varied levels of performance, security, and reliability to support their specific applications and processes. This understanding has driven the search for connectivity solutions that can be tailored to meet the exacting standards of these organizations.

Wi-Fi technology emerged as an early solution that provided a degree of autonomy and control over connectivity. Enterprises and organizations adopted Wi-Fi to create local networks within their premises, enabling wireless connectivity for devices and facilitating communication within a confined area. Wi-Fi allowed for the segmentation of networks, offering a level of privacy and control that was not as pronounced in traditional cellular networks.

However, Wi-Fi also came with its limitations. Coverage areas were confined, and the performance could be affected by interference and congestion, especially in densely populated areas. Moreover, the security protocols of Wi-Fi, while evolving, were not initially designed to meet the stringent requirements of certain industries, such as finance, healthcare, or defense.

Establishing and operating private networks before the advent of 5G technology posed significant financial challenges. The infrastructure required for a dedicated private network, including base stations, networking equipment, and spectrum allocation, incurred substantial upfront costs. Maintenance and operational expenses added to the financial burden, making it cost-prohibitive for many enterprises and organizations to invest in private network infrastructure.

Moreover, the complexity of managing and maintaining a private network, along with the need for specialized expertise, further elevated the costs. These challenges made it difficult for organizations to justify the investment in a private network, especially when commercial networks, despite their limitations, were more readily available and appeared more economically feasible.

The arrival of 5G technology has acted as a game-changer in the landscape of private networks. 5G offers the potential for enhanced performance, ultra-low latency, and significantly increased capacity. These capabilities address many of the limitations that were associated with Wi-Fi and earlier generations of cellular networks. The promise of 5G has prompted enterprises, industries, and government entities to reassess the feasibility of private networks, considering the potential benefits in terms of performance, security, and customization.

The growing trend of private networks can be attributed to several key factors:

• Performance Customization: Private networks enable enterprises and organizations to customize their network performance according to specific needs. Unlike commercial networks that provide best effort performance for a diverse consumer base, private networks allow for tailored configurations that meet the unique demands of various industries
• Security and Reliability: Security is paramount for many enterprises and government entities. Private networks offer a higher level of security compared to public networks, reducing the risk of cyber threats and unauthorized access. Additionally, the reliability of private networks ensures uninterrupted operations critical for sectors like finance, healthcare, and defense.
• Critical IoT and Industry 4.0 Requirements: The increasing adoption of Industrial IoT (IIoT) and Industry 4.0 technologies necessitates reliable and low-latency connectivity. Private networks provide the infrastructure required for seamless integration of IoT devices, automation, and real-time data analytics crucial for modern industrial processes.
• Capacity and Bandwidth Management: In sectors with high data demands, such as smart manufacturing, logistics, and utilities, private networks offer superior capacity and bandwidth management. This ensures that enterprises can handle large volumes of data efficiently, supporting data-intensive applications without compromising on performance.
• Flexibility in Deployment: Private networks offer flexibility in deployment, allowing organizations to establish networks in remote or challenging environments where commercial networks may not be feasible. This flexibility is particularly valuable for industries such as mining, agriculture, and construction.
• Compliance and Control: Enterprises often operate in regulated environments, and private networks provide greater control over compliance with industry-specific regulations. Organizations can implement and enforce their own policies regarding data privacy, network access, and usage.
• Edge Computing Integration: With the rise of edge computing, private networks seamlessly integrate with distributed computing resources, reducing latency and enhancing the performance of applications that require real-time processing. This is particularly advantageous for sectors like healthcare, where quick data analysis is critical for patient care.

As a result of these factors, the adoption of private networks is rapidly becoming a prominent industry trend. Organizations across various sectors recognize the value of tailored, secure, and high-performance connectivity that private networks offer, leading to an increasing shift away from traditional reliance on commercial cellular networks. This trend is expected to continue as technology advances and industries increasingly prioritize efficiency, security, and customized network solutions tailored to their specific operational requirements.

With the transformative potential of 5G, these entities are now reevaluating the role of private networks, anticipating that the advancements in technology will make these networks more accessible, cost-effective, and aligned with their specific operational requirements.

Terms and conditions available on demand: patrick.lopez@coreanalysis.ca  

Telco edge compute, RAN and AI

In recent years, the telecommunications industry has witnessed a profound transformation, driven by the rapid penetration of cloud technologies. Cloud Native Functions have become common in the packet core, OSS BSS, transport and are making their way in the access domain, both fixed and mobile. CNFs mean virtual infrastructure management and data centers have become an important part of network capex strategies. 

While edge computing in telecoms, with the emergence of MEC (Multi Access Edge Computing), has been mostly confined to telco network functions (UPF, RAN CU/DU...) network operators should now explore the opportunities for retail and wholesale of edge computing services. My workshop examines in details the strategies, technologies and challenges associated with this opportunity.

Traditional centralized cloud infrastructure is being augmented with edge computing, effectively bringing computation and data storage closer to the point of data generation and consumption.

What are the benefits of edge computing for telecom networks?

• Low Latency: One of the key advantages of edge computing is its ability to minimize latency. This is of paramount importance in telecoms, especially in applications like autonomous vehicles, autonomous robots / manufacturing, and remote-controlled machinery.
• Bandwidth Efficiency: Edge computing reduces the need for transmitting massive volumes of data over long distances, which can strain network bandwidth. Instead, data processing and storage take place at the edge, significantly reducing the burden on core networks. This is particularly relevant for machine vision, video processing and AI use cases.
• Enhanced Security: Edge computing offers improved security by allowing sensitive data to be processed locally. This minimizes the exposure of critical information to potential threats in the cloud. Additionally, privacy, data sovereignty and residency concerns can be efficiently addressed by local storage / computing.
• Scalability: Edge computing enables telecom operators to scale resources as needed, making it easier to manage fluctuating workloads effectively.
• Simpler, cheaper devices: Edge computing allows devices to be cheaper and simpler while retaining sophisticated functionalities, as storage, processing can be offloaded to a nearby edge compute facility.

Current Trends in Edge Computing for Telecoms

The adoption of edge computing in telecoms is rapidly evolving, with several trends driving the industry forward:

• 5G and private networks Integration: The deployment of 5G networks is closely intertwined with edge computing. 5G's high data transfer rates and low latency requirements demand edge infrastructure to deliver on its promises effectively. The cloud RAN and service based architecture packet core functions drive demand in edge computing for the colocation of UPF and CU/DU functions, particularly for private networks.
• Network Slicing: Network operators are increasingly using network slicing to create virtualized network segments, allowing them to allocate resources and customize services for different applications and use cases.
• Ecosystem Partnerships: Telcos are forging partnerships with cloud providers, hardware manufacturers, and application developers to explore retail and wholesale edge compute services.

Future Prospects

The future of edge computing in telecoms offers several exciting possibilities:

• Edge-AI Synergy: As artificial intelligence becomes more pervasive, edge computing will play a pivotal role in real-time AI processing, enhancing applications such as facial recognition, autonomous drones, and predictive maintenance. Additionally, AI/ML is emerging as a key value proposition in a number of telco CNFs, particularly in the access domain, where RAN intelligence is key to optimize spectrum and energy usage, while tailoring user experience.
• Industry-Specific Edge Solutions: Different industries will customize edge computing solutions to cater to their unique requirements. This could result in the development of specialized edge solutions for healthcare, manufacturing, transportation, and more.
• Edge-as-a-Service: Telecom operators are likely to offer edge services as a part of their portfolio, allowing enterprises to deploy and manage edge resources with ease.
• Regulatory Challenges: As edge computing becomes more integral to telecoms, regulatory challenges may arise, particularly regarding data privacy, security, and jurisdictional concerns.

New revenues streams can also be captured with the deployment of edge computing.

• For consumers, it is likely that the lowest hanging fruit in the short term is in gaming. While hyperscalers and gaming companies have launched their own cloud gaming services, their success has been limited due to the poor online experience. The most successful game franchises are Massive Multiplayer Online. They pitch dozens of players against each other and require a very controlled latency between all players for a fair and enjoyable gameplay. Only operators can provide controlled latency if they deploy gaming servers at the edge. Without a full blown gaming service, providing game caching at the edge can drastically reduce the download time for games, updates and patches, which increases dramatically player's service satisfaction.
• For enterprise users, edge computing has dozens of use cases that can be implemented today that are proven to provide superior experience compared to the cloud. These services range from high performance cloud storage, to remote desktop, video surveillance and recognition.
• Beyond operators-owned services, the largest opportunity is certainly the enablement of edge as a service (EaaS), allowing cloud developers to use edge resources as specific cloud availability zones.

Edge computing is rapidly maturing in the telecom industry by enabling low-latency, high-performance, and secure services that meet the demands of new use cases. As we move forward, the integration of edge computing with 5G and the continuous development of innovative applications will shape the industry's future. Telecom operators that invest in edge computing infrastructure and capabilities will be well-positioned to capitalize on the opportunities presented by this transformative technology.